Nonlinear Predictive Relationship Between GDP per capita and Mortality Rate: UK Case Study


Various analyses have studied the hypothesis of the change in mortality rates, finding, in some cases, a decrease, which has been associated to different factors, including economic growth. This study applies a cross-quantilogram to study the relationship between GDP per capita and the mortality rate for both men and women, taking the United Kingdom as a case study. The objective is to show that there are associations between different quantiles of the variables studied. It is found that there are asymmetric associations, the results show that there is a greater impact of GDP (Gross domestic product) per capita on the mortality rate, compared to the opposite relationship. In the case of women and men, high quantiles of economic growth have a greater impact on reducing mortality rates compared to low quantiles of economic growth, this may be a factor that can be attributed to the highly loaded labor force for males.



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This article is the result of several discussions with my dear friend Oscar Orozco. It’s a pleasure to share with you the results of our research.

Orlando Joaqui Barandica
Orlando Joaqui Barandica
PhD(C) in Industrial Engineering

My research interests include energy markets, asset and liability management, quantitative finance, applied econometrics and statistical, and data visualization.